Handicapping The Next Big Web 2.0 Sites for 2006
May 15th, 2007It’s getting near the end of the summer of 2006 and it’s been a pretty amazing run-up this year for the world of Web 2.0 software. MySpace and YouTube have made a tremendous mark on the industry as they showed the world what’s possible with user generated content, viral growth, and the two-way Web. MySpace and YouTube are currently at or near the very top of the traffic charts at this moment, even though they’re only a couple of years old. Richard MacManus further highlighted this trend a few days ago while referencing analysis that showed that the big Internet portals, such as Google and Yahoo!, were being closely followed by the top 10 social networking sites.
Yes, it’s clear that via social networking or otherwise, architectures of participation are the next big thing in online software because of their ability to flourish and become successful with enormous speed. The big question, as I speculated recently, is whether MySpace and YouTube are just two quirks, or are they just the harbinger of a generation of new online social sites. So, in the spirit of intellectual curiosity and unfettered inquiry, I did put together some research to see if we could discern some of the next big players in the Web 2.0 world. Admittedly, this is a high-risk endeavor with a good chance of missing the target, but it highlights some interesting sites of nothing else, and a few of these clearly seem on a significant upswing.
The criteria to make this list was 1) the site has to be a two-way Web application that primarily harnesses the collective intelligence of its users in some way, 2) it has to be on a steady traffic rise and used by ‘ordinary’ people mostly outside of the Web 2.0 community and, 3) was not clearly a previously known big name portal or social network still perceived to be a major up-and-comer. The result is what you see below and I hope you enjoy it. Finally, note this list — like all my popular Web 2.0 software lists — is entirely of my own creation and any errors or omissions are entirely mine. And please, no need to post comments about the subjectivity of Alexa traffic charts; that’s a given. A big thanks to Mark Scrimshire for helping me assemble some of this research.
Description: Fanpop is a brand-new social networking site that looks to have an impressive growth rate. Fanpop’s Alexa chart is almost vertical despite having just been launched at the beginning of August, a chart that looks an awful lot like Facebook’s did early on. It’ll be interesting to see if they can keep it up. The site is squarely aimed at a younger audience interested in fandom subjects of all kinds including celebrities, news, trivia, and much more. The thing that struck me most positively about Fanpop is that it’s startlingly well designed and easy-to-use. This is one of the essential ingredients for making a site maximally usable to users from all walks of life. Ease of use also sustains viral propagation. The sign up process smoothly walks you through an impressively simple, yet multistep process that makes the effort of signing up and creating your own Fanpop "spot" one of the best examples of the Lazy Registration pattern that I’ve yet seen. Lots of Web 2.0 best practices abound on Fanpop and its traffic stats show it, including the top 100 posts of the day right on the main page.
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Description: Zango is an interesting Web 2.0 site that touts its online games, advertising network, and use generated content. But it’s an intriguing yet strange blend of media and delivery approaches, and their site’s main tagline says it best, "Zango offers a vast network of free ad-supported games, videos and downloads powered by proprietary and revolutionary time-shifted advertising technology. Zango allows users, publishers, content providers and advertisers to connect within one unique online community." While Publish and Upload buttons are clearly prominent on the top of the site, it’s unclear how much content is actually being contributed by users other than their attention. Despite any questions about the Web 2.0 "purity" of the site, it’s clearly growing steadily despite a bit of slowdown lately, but it’s traffic charts continue show good day-in, day-out increases. Overall, the site seems to have borrowed some from the MySpace playbook in terms of look-and-feel, though its means of viral distribution has come under scrutiny lately.
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I’ve been tracking last.fm for a while and many of you will be quite familiar with it. Recently entering the top 500 sites on the entire Internet, last.fm’s product has become progressively slicker and smoother in recent months. At its core, Last.fm is an online radio station with a compulsive social dimension. Really, to even call it an online radio station is to do it a major disservice. Their music streaming application will "scrobble" up information about the tracks you play in the music player on your PC and then use this information to carefully tailor music selections for you. It’s very Web 2.0-like in that the more you use the service the better it gets. Like the other sites profiled here, last.fm seems to be growing steadily, its recent growth very likely having to do with some of the social sharing tools they make available to make your personal musical data available on MySpace, LiveJournal, and others. This of course spreads awareness of last.fm virally on the major social networks.
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Description: Though it can seem like social networking sites are popping up everywhere, Bebo has been with us for a while and famously shunned a half-billion dollar acquisition deal while "only" barely making the cut for the top 400 sites in the world. But what kind of social network is Bebo specifically? The top menu of the site says it all and offers users to select among Bands, Colleges, and other Schools. Bebo offers the usual online social networking flair including the sharing of personal pages, videos, images, and even offers a friends location mashup with Google Maps from the main page. Again, like many of these sites, the mystique can be hard to figure out for those of us not in high school or college, but certainly the demographic is quite good and their site traffic is clearly rising despite the school age set being on summer break at the moment.
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Description: Friendster has been with us for a while now and has famously waxed and waned over the last year or so. Currently, Friendster is on a major upswing and currently ranks in the top 50 of all Internet sites, claiming over 30 million online profiles on the main page. Like all successful social networking sites, Friendster makes sure the focus on people with a heavy emphasis on shared media, particularly pictures. What’s not as clear to me — and hopefully one of you can share — why it’s currently undergoing is pretty significant resurgence. A lot of the social sites I evaluated for this list were flat or declining, but Friendster has clearly recaptured its magic somehow. In any case, if it’s current uptick continues, it could potentially enter the top 10 within the year. The chart to the right is also different than the ones above and has a longer time period so you could see that Friendster has recently eclipsed its initial popularity peak in late 2004.
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Description: Like Friendster, Eurekster was one of the original Web 2.0-style sites and these days it seems to be reaching a high level maturity. Eurekster’s main page does a good job demonstrating the amount of buzz and industry press they are receiving for their concept of vertical community Web search. I’ve previously gotten quite a bit of traffic from Eurekster and so I know that people seem to be using it quite a bit. Eurekster is organized around the concept of a search wiki or ’swicki’ , that narrows and targets the search to that it’s more relevant. Sporting nearly 20,000 swickis, Eurekster seems to have reached a tipping point for growth and is beginning to get a good head of steam built up. Will it be a Google disruptor? It depends of course, but the the potential for doing just this is why it’s on this list.
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Description: I included TMZ.com purely as an outlier because it’s a significant new player from AOL, has some good early traffic patterns, and will either flame-out soon or possibly really make it. Right now it seems to be struggling for traffic but has done very well in recent weeks. I included this as an example of older new media trying to launch new sites to capture the Web 2.0 spark, but the site clearly seems too editorially controlled despite the usual Most Commented lists, requests for stories, and user submission forms (which seem too hard to find.) Is TMZ serious about network effects, capturing user contributions and making a name for itself? It’s not clear that it has the right ingredients and could make an excellent site to watch for how to make a Web 2.0 play after coming out of the gate with promise yet shaky legs.
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Description: Popurls was in my original research notes for this list but I’ve finally decided to add it after the releasing original post because it’s visitor traffic and its leveraging of the Database of Intentions seems to warrant it. Essentially a mashup of the Web’s most popular meme filters of the day, Popurls is in a similar service space as my overall favorite collective intelligence news filter, TechMeme. I’ve received varying levels of traffic from Popurls over the last few months and a tour of the site can show you why that might be; they have been aggressively expanding the content that they list on their main page to a great many credible sources on the Web. Fortunately, except for the case of del.icio.us/popular bookmarks, they are fair about it and route traffic to the news site they are aggregating, rather that directing them to underlying content. And while Popurls does not directly collect content from users , it does leverage it indirectly, and its site organization and quality experience alone deserves its five-star rating from Alexa.
One things I was surprised to see was the number of fairly well trafficked social networking sites, but a great many of them have fairly static or dropping traffic patterns. So, in the spirit of Web 2.0, please submit your favorite ones below if you genuinely think they have breakout promise in the next year….

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Time Magazine’s Person of the Year: You and Web 2.0
May 15th, 2007
Despite being considered so ten minutes ago in some corners of the the Internet, Time Magazine has selected Web 2.0 — in particular those people that are directly shaping it — as its esteemed Person of the Year. Specifically, Time Magazine has singled out you for recognition in this achievement and as the actual source of the exciting things happening on the Internet and in society today. Yes, that's you, reading this right now. At least if you've been contributing to the Web in some way using the increasingly ubiquitious tools and technologies ranging from the basic blog or wiki all the way up to video sharing platforms and social bookmarking sites. The Person of the Year cover story appears with the tagline that "in 2006, the World Wide Web became a tool for bringing together the small contributions of millions of people and making them matter. The cover story's lead author Lev Grossman then starts off with some fairly inspired prose after noting that there are still serious problems in the word which aregrowing in conjunction with this apparent technological Utopia, writing: But look at 2006 through a different lens and you'll see another story, one that isn't about conflict or great men. It's a story about community and collaboration on a scale never seen before. It's about the cosmic compendium of knowledge Wikipedia and the million-channel people's network YouTube and the online metropolis MySpace. It's about the many wresting power from the few and helping one another for nothing and how that will not only change the world, but also change the way the world changes. The cynical among us will find some of Lev's analysis to be starry-eyed and excessively optimistic, but calling out Web 2.0 by name, the Person of the Year cover story makes careful note that the mass participation we're witnessing on a grand scale on the Internet cuts both ways: Sure, it's a mistake to romanticize all this any more than is strictly necessary. Web 2.0 harnesses the stupidity of crowds as well as its wisdom. Some of the comments on YouTube make you weep for the future of humanity just for the spelling alone, never mind the obscenity and the naked hatred. But the lead story is just the beginning and Time has prepared an extravaganza of supporting material and documention in the form of fourteen separate stories that range across the Web 2.0 terrain covering subjects from online virtual worlds such as Second Life to an article titled in near purple prose fashion: "The Beast With a Billion Eyes - On the Web, anyone with a digital camera has the power to change history." None of this however is likely to please most of us who have lived through the year of Web 2.0, as 2006 undoubtedly was its big break with the term making the covers of major media properties like Newsweek and The Economist . In terms of the blogosphere, the self-appointed contributors that are making some of this this happen, the commentary on Time's choice covered the spectrum: Jeff Jarvis agreed with most of what they wrote, just requested that they turn down the volume a bit. Nick Carr took it surprisingly easy on the article, though he's long since posted his opinions of the Web 2.0 phenomenon. Paul Kedrosky came in as one of harshest critics of the story series and accused it of being a blatent cop-out, what with more important issues existing elsewhere in the world needing to be highlighted. With this altter bit I would suggest that the printing press didn't get much credit at the time but it's impact was practically profound and beneficial when looking back several hundred years. In reality, the Web as it exists today with sites like MySpace and YouTube which eagerly offer anyone who wants it an essentially permanent, scalable "channel" of their very own on the Internet, makes it possible for anyone with great — or at least interesting — ideas to reach the over 1 billion users that presently comprise the Web. Never before in history has access to the largest audience of users in the world been essentially free other than the personal time it takes to contribute. The long-term of effects of this will no doubt be as unpredictable as they will be significant as the control over information and content becomes relentlessly decentralized. The Web is essentially a system without an owner, a platform that is under no one's control, though anyone is free to built a new platform on top of that. Companies have had varying success in doing just that but the design patterns and business models for making the Web work best are at least beginning to be understood (aka Web 2.0). But in the end, control is shifting to the edge of the Internet instead of the center and it's not likely to shift direction without extremely potent motivation.
The aftershocks of all this (the shift of control, pervasive ability of anyone to trigger inflection points, etc) have sometimes been called Social Computing, and it will be long in unfolding. Companies and organizations that continually hand over more non-essential control to their employees, customers, and suppliers will almost certain be the big winners here. We have plenty of examples to cite already. The sudden pervasiveness of the two-way, participatory sites and tools powered by network effects and feedback loops have quickly remade the online landscape and Time has decided it is as big an event at least as it famously did in the 1980s by making the personal computer Person of the Year. I would wager however, the Web 2.0 is probably a more significant event by a good margin that even the PC was. Although the precise definition of Web 2.0continues to evolve, the fundamental effect, the harnessing of collective intelligence is the one that has the genuine potential to fundamentally remake our cultures, societies, businesses and even, as Lev Grossman states, "change the way we change the world. In any case, as usual, like the term or not, the Web is putting you in charge of just about anything that you can imagine. I recently spoke to a major fashion industry CEO who said he would expect to have product lines that were designed entirely by user contribution and the best resulting submissions selected by their customers to be that year's product line. The lesson: The consumers have become the producers. The same with just about any line of business; turning over non-essential control can result in enormous gains in economic efficiency as tens of thousands or even millions of customers creative output is harnessed in a mutually beneficial way. Organizations that fail to embrace the Web's natural communication-oriented strengths will fail when put in competition that those that do. Thus, a fascinating chain of events is forming as people around the world begin to realize the true significance of what the Web 2.0 era can truly offer. What will you do? What do you think? Is Web 2.0 evolution or revolution? Why?
But the truth of the matter is that just about any interaction with the Web at all generates new content of use to someone else (the so-called Database of Intentions ) and so that means frankly, if you're currently using the Web today even just to surf, you've become an integral part of this. "This" being a new generation of openness, sharing, and community powered by the Web that some think may be recognized in hindsight as breaking down important cultural barriers and institutions in a very similar fashion as what happened in the 1960's. True, it often doesn't seem like a revolution to us that see it growing bit and bit every day, but taken as a whole, there's now little doubt that the Web has become the most powerful, egalatarian, and knowledge rich platform in human history. Rapid evolution appears to have accelerated into a sort of revolution. 
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W3C Opens Southern Africa Office
May 15th, 20072007-05-14: W3C is pleased to announce the opening of the W3C Southern Africa Office. The Office is hosted at the Meraka Institute, a unit of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in Pretoria, South Africa. Quentin Williams is Office Manager. Daniel Dardailler and Stephane Boyera are among those who attended the opening ceremonies on 14 May. Visit the Offices home page. (Photo credit: Joshua McDill. Permalink)
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Web 2.0 in Politics: Jimmy Wales Creates Campaigns Wikia
May 15th, 2007They say the politics makes strange bedfellows and this instance might indeed be the case for the world of Web 2.0. Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales has recently announced Campaigns Wikia, an effort to bring political discourse to the masses using the humble wiki as the platform. Says Wales in his Mission Statement for Campaigns Wikia, "blog and wiki authors are now inventing a new era of media, and it is my belief that this new media is going to invent a new era of politics. If broadcast media brought us broadcast politics, then participatory media will bring us participatory politics."
Of course, creating participatory, two-way political communities on the Web is nothing new to politcs. In fact, as the 2008 presidential campaign ramps up, expect to see more of this as partisan and non-partisan political groups attempt to get people to participate and self-organize in local and national election processes. Yet influential folks in the world of social software, like Clay Shirky, seem to think that things like Deanspace, one of the success stories of the last election cycle, ultimately didn’t have any real effect. With online communities and the tools to support them getting better, this time might be different however. It will be interesting to see how well Wales does with Campaigns Wikia, particularly since he does have the track record for creating successful audiences around his wiki creations.

Campaigns Wikia is powered by the extremely capable Wiki platform, Mediawiki, the same one that powers Wikipedia. But Mediawiki, as good as it is, isn’t necessarily designed for the egalitarian political process. Web-based organizing platforms like CivicSpace seem to be a bit more appropriate and have built in fund-raising tools and e-mail integration, being architected from the ground up for the online political world. In fact, I’d go as far as saying that things like MySpace might be a much better model for giving online citizens a voice in the political process by giving them ownership and a personal "place" in the discussion. What I’m saying is that wiki may be great for information sharing, such as with the eponymous Wikipedia, but blogs are almost certainly better for the political process by providing an natural place for the individual voice. Perhaps a combination of them would work to unify the reference material with the conversations, ala Martin Fowler’s Blicki.
In fact, in my recent explorations of why certain Web 2.0 sites grow so quickly, I talk about how they exploit the incredible power of network effects by harnessing ther users’ collective intelligence. My concern primarily with Campaigns Wikia is that wikis generally do not have a sufficient positive feedback loop to create the kind of viral growth that will make much difference on the national stage. It’ll be intriguing to see what Campaigns Wikia does to trigger the necessary audience ramp up and sustained participation.
What will also be fascinating to track is whether Web 2.0’s infamous inversion of control, known increasingly for its ability to upend traditional hierarchical power structures by handing control to users, will have much actual effect in the gritty, hard nosed world of vote getting and election politics. Online discussion, community, and self-organizing political groups are wonderful things, but may not matter much to the traditional, enclosed command-and-control campaign processes, particularly at the presidential election level. This is what Deanspace apparently ran into ("support isn’t votes") and this isn’t likely a solved problem yet.
That’s not to say I’m not a big believer in the effectiveness of grassroots use of Web 2.0 techniques to ultimately change reality for the better. My favorite anecdote about self-organizing efforts to achieve real world change using Web 2.0 is still the incredible story of Katrinalist and the PeopleFinder project. I also covered another Web 2.0-in-politics story, Democracy 2.0, in my popular Best Web 2.0 Software of 2005, and there are many more similar examples. There truly is vast upside potential here and, like Enterprise Web 2.0, those that figure out how to exploit it have the potential to reap huge rewards. But I certainly think the ball is up in the air for exactly who will make it happen next in the political arena.
I wish Wales the best of luck with Campaign Wikia and I do suspect he’ll have a good measure of success. But my bet is that we’ve not yet seen the online source of political disruption and success in the next election cycle. Web 2.0 can be a very disruptive force and will potentially be a significant one in the 2008 political story.
What do you think? Will Web 2.0 truly go mainstream in the next election cycle?
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